As we come to the end of another year (and come to grips with how fast the last one went by), it is that time of year where talking heads and bloggers come out of the woodwork with their 2009 predictions. But, guess what?
They’re all going to be wrong. We simply don’t know, ok?
So, what I’m going to do is, BRIEFLY, throw out my own thoughts on what we MIGHT see in 2009. Then, I want to open it up to you – the reader. I want you to give YOUR predictions of what will happen in 2009 when it comes to computers, the Internet and the general world of tech. Then, we can all come back to this post toward the end of 2009 and see who was closest to being right.
Sound good? OK, I’ll go first…
Dave’s Predictions
The major factor affecting technology in 2009 is going to be the economy. We’re going to see increased attention paid to VALUE. We’re probably going to see more people hanging onto their computers a little longer and putting the effort into making it work better. But, people will still be buying things. Geeks have needs and they will plunk down their wallet if something fills that need. The major gadget and computer vendors are going to buckle down and focus on value.
When it comes to the Internet, I think we might see a few online services shut down as realities of cash flow hit home. We might not see new social media site launches every week as we saw in 2008. I think the world of social media is going to be more important than ever, but we may see some centralization as some of the small-time players fall away.
The Internet, though, is likely going to be more important than ever to people’s lives. I think we’re going to see a lot of people who lost their jobs due to the economy start to look to the Internet as a source of saving money, social connections, as well as a means to start a new business and generate some money online. I think we’re going to see a lot of creativity and ingenuity because we’re going to have a lot of smart people with little better to do. I think we may see a lot of people start new blogs. I even talked over on David Risley dot com about how we might see a lot of former reporters lose their job and become bloggers.
A few other predictions for you:
- The world of technology, especially Internet business, will either weather the economic downturn relatively unscathed or will be the first to recover. People who step up their game and get onboard have little to worry about.
- We’re going to see increased sales of cheap, small netbook PCs. The emphasis is moving away from pure computing power to the Internet as the main medium. Netbooks are perfect for that – and inexpensive.
- Windows 7 will be released and bring Microsoft back from the OS dead. PC sales will increase because Windows 7 will be what Vista should have been.
- The Iphone isn’t a fad – its a trend. Expect to see more and more people switch to smartphones. It might not be the Iphone, but it’ll be “smart”. Everything is going smaller and more mobile.
- Speaking of smartphones, expect fierce competition in this market. Apple will continue to perfect the Iphone, but phones like the Android powered T1 are going to grow quickly as the anti-Apple phone, an OS with which you can do whatever you want. In fact, I think you might see GPS-powered phones overtake portable GPSs for the car. Garmin, you better come out with a phone soon.
- Even though PC sales will increase due to Windows 7, Apple will continue to take market share. Apple has superior marketing skills and – I’ll say it – their OS is just plain better [sorry!].
- There will be a lot more emphasis on the structure of the Internet. There will be more talk about bandwidth demands, and we may see some major security attack (possibly terrorist related) that puts into question the security protocols used. On that same note, we are probably going to see increased government interest in managing the Internet and, in turn, a huge debate and social issue arising over governmental role in the world of technology.
OK, Your Turn!
You’re turn to be the pundit. What are YOUR predictions in tech for 2009? Post a comment below.
Like what you read?
If so, please join over 28,000 people who receive our exclusive weekly newsletter and computer tips, and get FREE COPIES of 5 eBooks we created, as our gift to you for subscribing. Just enter your name and email below:
I think things will change far less than most people are predicting.
As the Hedge fund members and the true capitalist gain confidence in portfolios that once gave liquidable gains then we will see a change in the different stock markets. The world investers are afraid and are waiting for a upward change in the american economy. This country needs a stable economy, a stable dollar and most of all the credit wortiness of the consumers. The United States needs to ride this one out and with the socialistic assistance of the federal reserve to control the prevention of inflation by regulating interest rates and controlling members of Wall sreet. Unfortunately we as the consumer need to spend what we can afford (continue). The rich need to invest in troubled markets. My prediction,We will prevail this coming Year.
But any change in IT industry?
IBM’s OS2 Warp will be released to the open source community.
windows redux ? but seriously in the current economic climate , why not make an offer to IBM ?
I can only make one prediction. Life will go on even with the screw ups made by everyone as far as computers go. Mine works but just about good. Someday I will build a new one from the dvd I got from you. I am deaf so I can’t really get the best from it. I am still trying. Life will go on.
Malware will attack Apple Computers OS more aggressively. Virtual Machines will be used to counter over the net. More extensive cyber terrorism utilizing storm clusters and cloud bots. Media will migrate from disc to RAM from brick & mortar to web.
Speaking as an IT manager of a small non-profit organization, Here are my predictions:
1) More organizations will start sharing resources, personnel as well as assets. For example, IT people will be expected to cover multiple organizations.
2) More people will want to work from home / work away from the office.
3) High Speed Internet will become even MORE available in rural areas.
4) People without Antivirus / expired Antivirus will wish they had backed up their data.
5) Under President Barak Obama the information gap will finally start to close.
6) The price of LCD flat screen monitors will continue to drop.
7) Cameras in phones will improve up to a NEW standard of 3.0 M pixels.
8) The Rick Roll will CONTINUE to be popular.
9) The internet will become SAFER as people start to adopt white lists/ black lists / blocked lists / phishing filters, ect.
10) Companies like Simply Super Software that offer a product that “fixes” your computer after a virus attack will become very popular.
A reply to Tony L:
I am not an IT guy, I just build pretty sites for people. So take it for it is is
The people who rely on what protection comes built in what box they buy will continue to rely on the same. They will not become any more aware of the world around them than they are. The internet will become no safer than it is because people will become no more intelligent/aware than they are.
I read through many of your comments, but not all. So I’m sorry if I’m just repeating what someone else said. I don’t have any real predictions for “Tech” in 2009. I think that will always remain the same, being, “Faster More”.
In terms of web development which is my area of interest: The result of better hardware for the dollar will result in today’s video game quality graphics becoming commonplace in motherboards’ onboard graphic capabilities. I am excited about this. Since the middle 80′s I have been looking forward to virtual worlds on the net.
You come to a site, and it asks you to download a language. Okay, that’s done in five seconds. Then you can see the sites in full 3D and interact with objects and people. You may download a variant of processing, papervision3D, whatever. But it will be a small addendum to what comes naturally through everyday computing. At my present connection I download 1MB in about half a second. So even with the dl’in of a small language package it will be well worth it for the user to say “yes, I want to see what you have to offer”.
Java, Flash and javascript are mainstays right now. And in 2009 and 2010 we will see a couple of graphics “engines” become the standard. Innovation becomes technique, and technique becomes program. It will take little more to develop full 3D sites (you walk into a library or mall, you stroll around) than it takes now to write some CSS or HTML. I will have lovely GUIs for developing my sites in totally interactive and visual manner.
What does not change is: We want to shop, and we want to see pretty things.
I predict that the USB (Flash drive) type of storage will take off and will be a big adjunct to the RAM in the older computers that will preclude many pkurchases of new compute. I paredict further that the hard drive as we know it will be phased out.
I also predict that (in the longer run) the computer will be come a processor and removable RAM and removable main drive (of the new type.)
I work in a UK school,and I see the credit crunch meaning we will have tighter budgets for educational technology. Rather than the current approach to technology in Infant and Junior schools where an ICT suite is established and classes take timetabled lessons specifically in ICT, I see a move to a more integrated approach where the laptop or a netbook is present on every pupils desk. We already have interactive whiteboards in every classroom and I think with wireless technology each pupil will be able to interact with all their fellow pupils through this display medium.
Because of the cost of software and hardware and the expertise required to run and maintain a secure school network with all the security updates and data backup, I would not be surprised to see a development where the school ‘rents’ or uses such as Microsoft software on a ‘pay as you go’ basis with the data stored on an Internet Service Providers server and a cheaper, simlper netbook is used in the classroom. Perhaps some entrepeneur is at this very moment setting this web service for schools up. ….
It’s the economy that will drive things & this will point us to greater efficieny.
1. The internet phone devices will replace many other devices.
2. Build you own computer and other computer do-it-yourself buisnesses will thrive. This include newletter such as this one.
3. Smaller more efficient computers will be on demand as we try to save money wherever we can.
4. The internet will no longer be as free for everyone as it has been so we may see some niche service start where one has to pay for what we need to do.
5. Apple will come under new management but will still do well with new inovations.
I’m sure that there will be many other changes that we can not even phanthom but this is my spiel for now.
Netbooks will be used with larger flat screens and external keyboards so that you do not suffer from a stiff neck.