As we come to the end of another year (and come to grips with how fast the last one went by), it is that time of year where talking heads and bloggers come out of the woodwork with their 2009 predictions. But, guess what?
They’re all going to be wrong. We simply don’t know, ok?
So, what I’m going to do is, BRIEFLY, throw out my own thoughts on what we MIGHT see in 2009. Then, I want to open it up to you – the reader. I want you to give YOUR predictions of what will happen in 2009 when it comes to computers, the Internet and the general world of tech. Then, we can all come back to this post toward the end of 2009 and see who was closest to being right.
Sound good? OK, I’ll go first…
Dave’s Predictions
The major factor affecting technology in 2009 is going to be the economy. We’re going to see increased attention paid to VALUE. We’re probably going to see more people hanging onto their computers a little longer and putting the effort into making it work better. But, people will still be buying things. Geeks have needs and they will plunk down their wallet if something fills that need. The major gadget and computer vendors are going to buckle down and focus on value.
When it comes to the Internet, I think we might see a few online services shut down as realities of cash flow hit home. We might not see new social media site launches every week as we saw in 2008. I think the world of social media is going to be more important than ever, but we may see some centralization as some of the small-time players fall away.
The Internet, though, is likely going to be more important than ever to people’s lives. I think we’re going to see a lot of people who lost their jobs due to the economy start to look to the Internet as a source of saving money, social connections, as well as a means to start a new business and generate some money online. I think we’re going to see a lot of creativity and ingenuity because we’re going to have a lot of smart people with little better to do. I think we may see a lot of people start new blogs. I even talked over on David Risley dot com about how we might see a lot of former reporters lose their job and become bloggers.
A few other predictions for you:
- The world of technology, especially Internet business, will either weather the economic downturn relatively unscathed or will be the first to recover. People who step up their game and get onboard have little to worry about.
- We’re going to see increased sales of cheap, small netbook PCs. The emphasis is moving away from pure computing power to the Internet as the main medium. Netbooks are perfect for that – and inexpensive.
- Windows 7 will be released and bring Microsoft back from the OS dead. PC sales will increase because Windows 7 will be what Vista should have been.
- The Iphone isn’t a fad – its a trend. Expect to see more and more people switch to smartphones. It might not be the Iphone, but it’ll be “smart”. Everything is going smaller and more mobile.
- Speaking of smartphones, expect fierce competition in this market. Apple will continue to perfect the Iphone, but phones like the Android powered T1 are going to grow quickly as the anti-Apple phone, an OS with which you can do whatever you want. In fact, I think you might see GPS-powered phones overtake portable GPSs for the car. Garmin, you better come out with a phone soon.
- Even though PC sales will increase due to Windows 7, Apple will continue to take market share. Apple has superior marketing skills and – I’ll say it – their OS is just plain better [sorry!].
- There will be a lot more emphasis on the structure of the Internet. There will be more talk about bandwidth demands, and we may see some major security attack (possibly terrorist related) that puts into question the security protocols used. On that same note, we are probably going to see increased government interest in managing the Internet and, in turn, a huge debate and social issue arising over governmental role in the world of technology.
OK, Your Turn!
You’re turn to be the pundit. What are YOUR predictions in tech for 2009? Post a comment below.
David Risley is the founder of PCMech.com. He is the brains, the thinker, the writer, the nerd.
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the crise that hapened few months ago affected the technology researches a lot in my point of view. we are using now the IP version 4 ( Japan and China are using IP version 6 ). Migrating to IP ver 6 for the rest of world will take a very long time i guess … and not happy for that
Indeed it will take longer to have IPV6 implemented to tally but there will be a real consideration on it. Yet North America and Europe still use it, but let’s consider other parts of the world that need the Internet and can’t because of the shortage of IPV4 which is real. Take into account that China, India, Africa South America are growing exponentially and there will still be a translation between IPV4 and IPV6 but for how long till vendors end making appliances that support IPV4. I do not predict yet the death of IPV4, no, but more businesses are considering migrating into IPV6 and some that I am not going to name here are ready.
Yours
RIM will produce an iPhone killer and it won’t be the Blackberry Bold. It will create record sales.
Hello,
I am not going to be that long but adding into what David has stressed, the technology will be also focused on
- Virtualisation which means savings when it comes into servers
- I mean also the push in IPV6 as the Internet under IPV4 is getting shorter
- IP telephony will gain more and more this still to help individuals as well as businesses to reduce cost
- More games with high end graphics will be on demand but fast processing will also be needed, if centrino 2 duo took the lead yet AMD will announce its own fast but saving CPU too.
- Wireless technologies will push more and more, more hotspots will be available making consumers less dependant to ISP but Backups centre will also be needed with virtualisation.
- the PC world will go smaller but faster and the phone will be used for almost everything we need to, connecting to the work place, checking our emails as usual, connecting to friends using more IM, or streaming voice and video data, thus more bandwidth will be needed and ISP will increase their upstream as well as downstream load.
Best regards
Vitalization is becoming something that will be very common. In servers and in desktops. The server-client model we all thought/think is ancient is now coming back. Thin-clients will begin to creep into your life in one way or another.
This will fit right into the theme of 2009 in technology. Getting the same amount of technology with a much smaller budget.
Company’s are starting to find that it’s not worth spending money on horsepower that never gets used. It’s not economical to buy a quad-core machine to only do word-processing when you can visualize the desktop and save in multiple areas.
I believe you are right about people looking to the internet to make money. I also believe that my local newspapers job hunt page will be gone. nobody prints want ads anymore, it’s all on line.
(1) The slow economy will drive an invigorated interest in “free” Linux and open source applications.
(2) The slow economy will create an insurgence in security “bad guys” trying to make an illegal buck; thus, computer/Internet/network security will be very busy.
(3) Computer forensics will be a burgeoning field of interest and study, including training and certifications.
That’s it from me!
I believe that this is the year we will see the 2GB hard at 7200 RPM. They just need to have a better warranties to back them (5 years).
I also believe that online business will be the way to go in 2009.
Social sites I must admit are the way to go, but I beleive there are too many of them. Once they figure out which one will be the dominate one things will be great for networking.
You have said it all . Let me so Thank you for every tps right from the day one of the year and lastly the day PCMECM come to invention.
My own view is that computer will be more of use to everyone than it was before now. Internet same thing but i tell you Hackers will want to ve there way.
End of the ” INTERNET ” as you & I know it.
Severe curtailment on access & unaffordable cost – wise for
the average Joe & Jan!
I see conventional platter driven hardrives becomming very cheap (500GB can now be found at under £50/$77)as the SSD solid state drives become affordable.
Absolutely right about the smartphone..
Im a telecom tech for the 6th largest cell company in the u.s. Ive noticed alot of people come to our company because, and let’s be honest…AT&T doesn’t have that great of service. I’ve noticed alot of the younger crowd have been switching to either HTC or RIM products. I see this as a greater trend which has really gained momentum with our company over the last year. At this point our revenue isn’t generated by “minutes” it’s generated by our data network.
Thank you David for sound predictions.
I believe
1. IP telephony will thrive for 2009
2. broadband would become the standard internet hiway
3. smaller but powerful netbooks of the 12.1 type will
penetrate the market because of the demand for greater
mobility.
More & more gov’t intrusion and control of specs and content; the ObamaNation will try to bring free broadband to the whole country while us working stiffs will pay and pay and pay… for those that won’t.
We will see Internet taxation of goods and services obtained thereof across the board… no matter where you live or where the company is located.
We will become more and more dependent on smart phones.
Graphene will revolutionize some devices.
The economy will only get a little better temorarily as The Big 3 default on their loans and do a structured Chapter 11 bankruptcy and get out from under the UAW and legacy costs.
We will see the rise of Mega-Banks swallowing up everything in their path.
China’s American surrogate, Walmart will decline & fail as China calls in all our debt.
Trillions more money will be thrown at the economy, to no avail. We will become like the Wiemar Republic, inflation will soar.
Global Warming will be proven to be the sham that it is.
Internet business will boom with plenty of free shipping.
[QUOTE]
* The economy will only get a little better temporarily as The Big 3 default on their loans and do a structured Chapter 11 bankruptcy and get out from under the UAW and legacy costs.
* We will see the rise of Mega-Banks swallowing up everything in their path.
* China’s American surrogate, Walmart will decline & fail as China calls in all our debt.
* Trillions more money will be thrown at the economy, to no avail. We will become like the Wiemar Republic, inflation will soar.
* Global Warming will be proven to be the sham that it is.
[/QUOTE]
Thank you, Doomsday. Your wise words of non-tech related doom and gloom bring a shiny ray of sunshine to us all. It’s a pity you completely missed the subject of “predictions of what will happen in 2009 when it comes to *computers, the Internet and the general world of tech*” as half of your predictions were economy related.
The economy drives 99% of IT.
If Barry Obama raises taxes and tanks the U.S. economy like he promises to do “for the good of all” (thank you Karl Marx) with his Democrat-stacked Congress, then get out your two-tin-cans-and-a-string cellphone.
Hopefully he was just lying to all the leftists just to get elected LOL.
Oil has suddenly dropped from $147 to $34 per bbl wholesale.
This should help in stimulating the economy.
So not all bad news.
I think as well it will depend on the economy, because the economy has already changed so many things. Seeing all the smart phones become the future laptop or desktop is what I think will be the norm. Since our next administration is pretty technologically savvy we probably will be looking at some government control which I feel could be good or bad. So I think though as we have progressed over the years in technology that it will continue to get easier and better. I so look forward to 2009 in every way.
As my nick suggests I’ve been around for a while and I’ll agree that I think the internet is important in many ways, if you all have read your history you will realize that if this is the huge depression (and they have compared it to 1929) there will be no jobs, there will be no money and people are going to be more concerned about keeping some kind of roof over their heads and food in their bellies than they are about technological advancement.
We need to come out of the “more, more” attitude for each and everyone of us and figure out how to bring not only the US, but the rest of the world out of the problems we’ve created….that’s going to take huge amounts of “Brainpower”…that’s where we need to be focusing!
I agree on many points.
I’m employed by a local county government in a small community, and our budget has been cut for this year & next. That, coupled with the increasing prices of certain proprietary software has driven us to consider linux OS’s & other open source solutions. Our public library is already running 6 Ubuntu desktops.
I think we’ll see more of a move in this direction in 2009. Not only due to the free nature of the OS, but the lack of needing a MS Office license, a client access license, an A/V license, etc. The open source has a cost savings trickle down effect that I think will seduce a lot of people.
Fun stuff – here’s my precictions
- tech savy kids and seniors with the time and resources to hack and invent some cool stuff (and then get paid for it)
- people going longer and longer without un-plugging – so more strategies and games that help you feel un-plugged without actually unplugging – to “take back control” and relieve the pressure to be first, fastest, and do more. I’m predicting more on-line personal coaching, on-line retreats, and on-line bio-feedback to check your pulse and heart rate!
Honestly, I think we are going to see a lot of company mergers or buyouts in the tech sector. Smaller companies that have great assets may find it difficult to bring in revenue and thus merging with a larger more stable company could help save jobs. Also, I expect there to be fewer product models on the market in the pc vendor. Less money put into development means more revenues for jobs or marketing. Solar panel as a means of power will continue to grow. Some large companies will fall most likely.
Other than that, I can’t say much. We have primarily the same elected officials in the house and senate that we had the last term, so I don’t expect much change there.
I think the Mac computer will gain more followers in 2009 partly because Microsoft’s Vista was such a bummer.
Also cheaper machines in the PC line will be the leaders.
We’ll see what 2009 brings. Van
I’m not going to go on about points already mentioned that I agree with, but when it comes to tech, my prediction is that if the world economy slows as much (or even more) than anticipated, bandwidth caps on broadband cable and DSL will start to become more dominant among the major ISP’s, with the smaller players then following them.
Australia already has extreme caps on bandwidth usage when compared to the rest of the world and it seems to be a growing trend with other ISP’s in different countries to cap usage due to excessive use. I foresee more ISP’s capping usage to save money.
This is just one of the things that I can see possibly happening.
regarding hardware :
oem SATA hard disk drive array sets (mode0 striping) for much faster data throughtput rates.
Integrated onboard system hard disk drive(s) – faulty boards/drives traded in as a unit for replacements or effectively a system upgrade
System cases with dust filters
Increase to 40 degrees (+5 dedrees) celsius max system ambient operating temp
PSU to have externally replacable cooling fans
change of ram memory material to sram (as per cpu cache)for faster data throughput.
Software : os – windows7 : 64bit only
retail FPP /upgrade/replacement windows7 under US$100
System OEM’s : meaningful trade-in bounty on old systems, refurbished , then sold to other worthy disadvantaged markets
MS : MAR licenses for cottage industry sized refurbishers, say
down to 50 units per year (rather than current 50,000 units per year )
(to encourage less landfill waste)
Govt : to create initial system raw material recycling processing factories using the economically disadvantaged.
Outlaw dumping of used systems and monitors
I think a new social application will sweep the nation, for smartphones equipped with bluetooth. Phones will be able to connect with other phones in Bluetooth range, to exchange standardized formatted personal/preference information, to determine if the owners of the two phones might be a good match for a relationship. If there is a match, the two subjects can push a button to indicate a willingness to begin a conversation. Right-wingers will fight it, because they will claim it is primarily a tool of the gay community. Owners of bars and dance halls, etc. will prosper, as they hold parties just for those who have the specially equipped phones. The phones will be outlawed in government buildings and other places of business, because of fears that they will harm productivity or compromise what should be strictly business relationships. Google or Yahoo or some other big outfit will take over the business, because of their market clout, in being able to establish a universal standard for the information exchange. The device will be called the AmourDowser. Is your smartphone AD-ready?
I have thinking about to happen with this economy tech. I think I will speak of what will happen here in Singapore(Asia). I might be wrong!
1. Netbook will be perverse and will be used by everyone(almost), nevermind the small screen. Cheap and of value counts.
2.IP telephony has been picked up. We will see at leasr 50% using them by end of 2009
Everyone else has commented on other stuffs. It will be same elesewhere
One of the first technological advances of 09′ shall be from Canada. They have been working on Supersizing their robotic arm, of space shuttle fame & will become allies with Mexico, more on this a little later. General Motors will, with the billions loaned to them by us will finally manufacture the first affordable gas powered Flying Car, called the Albatross (after the most beautiful of all birds) this will be wildly successful & blot out all other car makers of the world. Iraq & Iran will cooperate to develop a pill that when ingested will make urine smell like gasoline, paying their citizens to take these pills & pee into 55 gallon barrels, will sell them to the United States for $25 per barrel! Back to Canada… they will ally with Mexico & use these robotic arms to pluck our Women (or gay mates) from the U.S., in their words “just to screw with America”! When we attempt a massive rescue,by flying to Canada & Mexico in our Albatrosses’ problems arise from powering them using petroleum purchased from our “friends in Iraq & Iran.
Someone cut this guy off – he’s had too much to drink!
More and more people will try and earn money from the internet without a clear understanding of cashflow or a plan for their business. They will not have clear goals and so will fail and complain bitterly when there are many individuals only too happy to help them to progress.
Netbooks will be used with larger flat screens and external keyboards so that you do not suffer from a stiff neck and other maladies so woe betide those who build their netbooks without a proper interface to an external monitor. (HP be warned)
Thanks
Rob
It would be nice (not a prediction) to see Apple come out with a version of it’s OS for Windows based pc, no would that not be nice. I could see Bill Gates now squirming in his seat when Apple launches it new OS for Windows based pc’s. Also I think that it will be a killer yr for hackers. With all the new was of doing day to day business via the pc, cell phones, they will have a killer of a time..