As a bit of a follow-up to my recent editorial about the different operating systems battling it out, a few readers made comments about Ubuntu and Windows and, essentially, that I was giving Windows a little too much credit. So, I thought I would write another one here specifically to address the issue of Linux actually replacing Windows. Can it?
In short – not yet. And here’s why.
Microsoft Made The Rules
Back in 2001, Microsoft came out with Windows XP. At the time, it was essentially the only desktop operating system worth anybody’s time. At the time, Microsoft Office had won the war of the office suite. Internet Explorer had pushed Netscape out of the market by riding the coattails of Windows’s success and essentially forcing users to Internet Explorer. A legal battle ensued against Microsoft on that one, leading to the eventual loosening of the grip on the internet by Internet Explorer (although some would argue they still have a tight grip). All the time, Linux was quite popular as a server (mainly because Windows is too unstable), but as far as the desktop goes, it was mainly for geeks.
Today, open source has made a bit of a comeback. OpenOffice has become a worthy competitor to Microsoft Office, so much so that it made Microsoft re-think their office suite and now Office 2007 uses more open document standards. Firefox was borne out of Netscape’s grave and is now quite popular. And we have Linux itself having grown into the desktop arena with popular desktop options Gnome and KDE, both of which give Vista a run for it’s money.
So, things have changed. But, enough for Linux to take over? No, and that is because Microsoft’s initial success has basically meant that it made most of the rules. People have gotten used to the way Microsoft’s software works. We’ve gotten used to the way they do things. Microsoft, too, isn’t exactly an open book on how they have done things, so it leaves others to get as close as they can, but not quite there.
The popularity of Windows also means that most vendors dedicate most of their energy to making their wares work in Windows. And therein lies the reference to the capitalist market I made in the prior article. The market has chosen Windows and now we are dealing with that choice. Vendor support for Linux and other platforms ends up being more of an afterthought. Wine is an open source implementation of the Windows API that is available for Linux, allowing you to run Windows software on a Linux system. But, Wine isn’t perfect. It can run some software, but the support is spotty. Another option would include virtual machines inside of Linux to run Windows software, but that doesn’t appear to be very workable at this point either.
The best option for Linux is to use software natively written for Linux, but that supports the Microsoft standards. Now that Microsoft seems to be opening up some of it’s file standards, perhaps this can be done a little better by the Linux world. For example, OpenOffice offers document support for Office files. But, it only goes so far. Some of the fancier features of Office can’t be saved properly in OpenOffice, and that is because the exact format of the DOC files was only known by Microsoft. Now that Office 2007 is using an open XML standard, maybe this can be alleviated.
People Want an Alternative
Microsoft has made the rules here and that is because Linux took too long to go consumer on us. Yes, we are now seeing a comeback for open source, but the progress is slowed in the operating system arena because of the incredible prominence of Microsoft Windows. But, markets tend to give and take, and my sense is that Microsoft is now on an ebb. Windows XP was pretty good, and still is. I am now using Vista, which puts me in a position to recommend to others that they continue to run XP for now. Vista just isn’t ready. Which leads me to my point…
Microsoft’s handling of Vista seems to be a sign to me that the company is indeed losing it’s grip on the OS market. It took them six years to come up with Vista, and I’m left scratching my head on exactly what all the fuss was about. And after Vista’s release, the hardware support in Vista is a bit lackluster. Some hardware vendors are playing hell providing Vista support for their stuff due to the huge changes Microsoft made inside Windows. At the same time, Vista is an absolute beast of an operating system. While it really requires about 2 gigs of memory to run respectably, Ubuntu Linux can do so with only 512 MB.
So, while the success of Firefox shows that people wanted an alternative to Internet Explorer, I really do think Vista is the tipping point for a desire for an alternative in the OS arena. People are tired of Microsoft. They are tired of the barrage of security concerns, of the blue screens, the lock-ups. I, for one, would LOVE to have a viable desktop operating system that is really a drop-in replacement for Windows. But, Linux just isn’t there yet for the reasons above.
What would need to happen for Linux to become more of a replacement?
- Linux needs to operate more and more like Windows. It is getting there. But, Linux needs to get such that you don’t need a command line hardly at all. Installing programs should be as easy as double-clicking a file (not tracking down package dependencies). Again, Linux is going to have to play by the rules set by Windows in order to take Windows down a notch.
- Open standards need to become more the norm than the exceptions. Companies should make a special point to use open standards. For example, using OpenOffice rather than Microsoft Office will make your documents more open and more cross platform.
- Vendors need to flow more effort into supporting Linux. It’s a bit of the chicken and the egg problem, though. They will put more effort into it if Linux gets popular enough to warrant their time. On the other side, Linux isn’t really going to get that popular if these vendors don’t do it.
Moving to the Web
The trend of late is that a lot of desktop software is being replaced by web-based counterparts. In fact, just a couple weeks ago I have officially dropped Outlook as my email client in favor of Google’s Gmail service. I spend most of my day inside my web browser, and it wouldn’t matter what computer or what operating system I am using, Gmail would still work the same way. And Firefox is available for both Windows and Linux.
It doesn’t stop with Gmail, though. There are now web-based apps that cover everything from finance, graphic design, time management, office suites – you name it. All of it is dependent only on the web and the server it sits on. As these types of things get more popular, it just won’t matter what operating system one is using.
With the move toward web-based software, and the valiant efforts of projects like OpenOffice and Firefox, I think the scene is shifting toward open source and away from the days of Microsoft as the dominant force. This will open up more opportunities for the likes of Ubuntu and others, but it is up to the developers of those systems to seize the chance. They can’t re-invent the way the world works, and the computer world is still very much revolved around the way Windows does things. So, open source developers need not be snobbish about being anti-Windows. No, on the contrary, get in there and do what Windows does the way Windows does it, then show people that they’re doing it without any Microsoft labels all over it.
Then you’re getting somewhere.
David Risley is the founder of PCMech.com. He is the brains, the thinker, the writer, the nerd.
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As suggested in the title, I guess it is impossible, at least for the next 5 years. Microsoft has a strong foothold in the software market, and vendors have been writing drivers for Microsoft Windows, yet not much for Linux.
If the vendors’ driver issue is not solved, end-users will find it hard to switch to Linux.
[...] an article onto Digg.com and it sent me a big traffic spike. This was for an article called “Can Linux Replace Windows?” published over on PC Mechanic. I thought I would share with you the stats from the Digg [...]
[...] Linux users) are extremely dedicated to their “side”. The recent article I wrote on Can Linux Replace Windows garnered such a response from Linux users that it boosted that article as the most popular article [...]
Until every program for Linux I could possibly want to install is made into a package or made easy to install then I’ll never use Linux for an OS. My Ubuntu CD is still one of my most valuable tools though.
It seems to be an article of faith that we need lots of operating systems and lots of distros, I suppose to give some people something to do or figure out. One Linux distro could easily replace Windows because Linux is both better and cheaper. One Linux distro won’t happen for any number of reasons, the main one being the desire to keep Linux for those who see themselves as superior to the computer illiterates who want to turn the machine on and have it work.
One Linux has the advantage of allowing us to begin dealing with the many problems created by the huge number of hardware suppliers. I have three printers a Konica Minolta, a Sharp and a Cannon. None of them work with Linux. I don’t know if someone at some open source site has come up with drivers. The issue is who is Linux for? The comparatively few million advanced users or the rank and file who want to turn on the computer, have it work, and not look under the hood. Linux will never hit the really big time as long as it is controlled by people who can’t see the forest for the trees.
Ed – you are right on the money. The purpose of the OS is to run applications and operate the things attached to the computer. No one loads Linux or Windows or OS/400 or OS X and says “WOW! I’m productive!!!”
It isn’t the OS, guys, its the applications. Windows runs the applications. When Linux runs the applications, it will be viable. But it isn’t a chicken & egg issue – the farmer on the next farm is serving omelets already!
[...] Windows Versus Linux [...]
Dex said:
“It isn’t the OS, guys, its the applications. Windows runs the applications. When Linux runs the applications, it will be viable.”
Wonderfully put. There’s really nothing more to debate about.
I agree to a point, but in 90% of computer users cases (well over 90% of computer users are total imbeciles who just haven’t heard of Linux, or think it’s something it is not) the applications for their activities (freecell and checking e-mail) are already there and quite usable. Linux has also been used quite successfully on the business desktop, and it’s indisputably the best server OS. The main reason I hear that people don’t get Linux is because of some specialized software with an arrogant company, or games.
The last few times I commented I made the mistake of leaving my email address in here. So, I had the misfortune of reading this: “over 90% of computer users are total imbeciles.” I don’t know how old you are, and I don’t wish to insult you by guessing.
A long time ago, even before I was born, computers were used only by scientists, engineers and the like. But then somebody came up with this idea of presonal computing. And ever since then, most of the promises of Information Technology had been about making life better for the common man. But have we really delivered on those promises? Not even close. In fact we have made software so bizzare that people pay enormous amounts of money to learn. Have you seen the videos of the little kids navigating through iPhones. That’s the kind of usability as developers, we should dream of achieving. While I’ve never used a Mac OS, I know that they are the best in usability. While us devs think MS screwed up big time with Vista, that’s what they were after as well.
If anybody wishes to argue that Windows sucks in the server market or where scientific research needs to be done, go ahead. It might or might not be true. But since, it’s not my area of experise I don’t know enough to aruge. What we are talking about here is the consumer market; the world of personal computng. If Mac fans want to claim their superiority there, well I agree with them. But then our reach as developers is limited to a smaller consumer base. That probably is bad marketing on Apples part. But if anybody’s claiming Linux is ready to take over the consumer market, that just isn’t true. Maybe some distros are making huge strides at getting there. Good for them, those are the people who’ve got the right idea: Making so that the masses can easily adopt it.
Being a developer, I have to and will live in the world my end users would live in. Right now that’s Windows. Regardless of what’s “better” for the technically elite, the elite must remember the purpose of their existance: which is to make the world a little easier for the rest. If you cannot solve a problem inside the customer’s “world” and demand that they stop being “imbeciles” and move over to the world you are comfortable in, you are just a miserable failure as a developer/designer.
“Arrogance” is an interesting concept to be thrown around by somebody who feels the world needs run the way he wants it to.
You know, that didn’t read the way I intended it to be read. I’m not saying you’re an imbecile because you haven’t heard of/don’t use Linux, I’m saying most computer users have no clue whatsoever what they’re doing beyond a few simple tasks like reading e-mails and sending IMs.
That said, I think I’ve wrought enough havoc on this poor list. I’m out.
Sir, I have been using computers from 1984, Well never heard of anything called Microsoft at the time, I personally feel you are talking about people who started using pcs much later say sometime in 95 and later, Please make that clear when you write these things and do not mislead people, LINUX SHOULD NEVER BECOME A wIN-DOS OR WHATEVER CLONE, They should stop supporting anything M$ , After all all these talks about Linux reaching where windos is is not acceptable ,Linux developers should not even read these filth and continue writing code which they prefer to use and should not target any market,If someone feels windos is good for him let him/her use it , Linux should not be forced on anyone, After all I would say the talk of linux v/s windos is total waste, While Linux is one’s passion Windos is forced on you like compulsory military service in some autocratic states
I would like to say I have nothing against Linux. I have used it, but I prefer MS Word and Excel and I do not see anything out there as good to replace it. I have open office at home on one Windows PC and I consider that sub-par. It just can not be compared to Microsoft Office Suite. I am just stuck on windows because I want to use microsoft office suite. I think MS is missing the boat and could stand to make some money if they had a Linux compatable Word and Excel Package. Maybe Linux people would never buy it. Who knows.
I think what will kill Windows is overpricing the market. I look at some of the prices for Windows as a commercial product, and probably only large OEM’s can afford to purchase Vista Business Professional. I would not buy it if I had to purchase it separately. Microsoft purposely overprices the operating system, and hates any consumer who does want to build their own computers. There is no way in Hell that Microsoft can say they are for the average consumer or the little guy.
These large OEM’s are a detriment to intelligent thought and innovation. How can anyone bring any innovation to market if it takes 10+ years to get a new standard approved?
The argument is about individualism vs. collectivism. Some want to do what they want when they want. Although we have all sorts of laws regulating behavior, they don’t want the concept extended to computing. Some people don’t want to look under the hood of their computers. This doesn’t make them imbeciles. Their interests lie elsewhere.
Cooperation and standards are far more powerful developers than competition. The big three auto companies supposedly are each developing a hydrogen vehicle. Think of how much more efficient if they cooperated. Now each reinvents the wheel which may have been invented by one of the others. The same is true for the two competing HDTV formats. We need one format, the best we can manage, but we won’t get Sony and Toshiba to cooperate any more than we will get the various Linux distros to cooperate. We’re not there yet.
The argument is about individualism vs. collectivism.
This sounds like mumbo jumbo you copied from some place. Is this from your corporate anti-culture?
We need competition. Innovation comes from competition.
That just isn’t true. Special interests and profit are currently driving the markets in nearly every sector, let alone computer tech. Unfortunately, profit will always stay there, because without it the companies would collapse, but cooperation is much more efficient. When we have format wars like with HDTV, we have millions being wasted on one format that won’t be the standard when the time to make a decision comes.
Windows and Linux can’t really be categorized the same way Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are though, because each one is basically set up for a different crowd with different tastes. The problem is that Microsoft holds such a firm grasp over the market that competing with it is just about impossible. Check out the video games section of a tech store and you’ll see one good example. Do you see boxes anywhere that are labeled “Games for Linux”? Nobody is focusing on Linux because Microsoft has become anti-competitive in owning so much. If they teamed up with Linux distro makers, they could end up receiving more profit from Linux users buying Windows software while still being a cooperative and progressive force in the industry. Instead they came out with Vista, which was a multi-billion dollar flop. Same as one of the HDTV formats will be, same as many of the alternative energy cars that are coming out.
Cooperation leads to gain, yet we still squander loads of money on anti-cooperative efforts. Does this make any sense to you?
Charles @ 90
The idea competition begets innovation is usually mistaken especially here where open source (a real innovation) started as true cooperation until it was corrupted by capitalism. Even Torvalds profited from the Red Hat IPO.
You must distinguish innovation that matters from innovation intended to garner market share. Microsoft often includes something in its operating system (i.e. a Real Audio like application) which doesn’t improve on the original, but was created to switch people from the original to Microsoft’s version. “Innovation” without a gain in performance (most “innovation” falls under this category) wastes everyone’s time and unnecessarily complicates things. Some people like things complicated so they can feel superior to people who for various reasons are not inclined to deal with it.
As for individualism v collectivism, I copied it from my book which you can read at http://www.egalite.com
Has the author even tried Ubuntu. I think not because of the statements made in which I will get into in a bit.
I just purchased Vista and got so fed up that most of my older software did not work with it that I have thrown in the towel. I refuse to be forced to spend hundreds of dollars on upgrades. Unfortunately XP will eventually become plagued with viruses as it fizzles out from lack of support so….
I’m running an AMD dual Core Athlon 4200+, 2 g of memory, 22 inch monitor, Radeon x1300 card with 512k memory.
I got a hold of Ubuntu Ultimate 1.5. Faster install than Vista. Found it has more than I will ever need to be productive as a desktop office computer.
Hmm, no lexmark support, but hey I blew off the dust on an old 820 CSE HP printer and lo and behold it worked perfectly. Wow I feel so retro.
I am no fanboy of any operating system, as I just want something that works and does not an arm and a leg!
Now to the authors statements:
1) * “Linux needs to operate more and more like Windows. It is getting there. But, Linux needs to get such that you don’t need a command line hardly at all. Installing programs should be as easy as double-clicking a file (not tracking down package dependencies). Again, Linux is going to have to play by the rules set by Windows in order to take Windows down a notch.”
Hello….did you even try Ubuntu. Ubuntu offers windows interfaces that surpass MS. Flavors such as Gnome, KDE, Xfce, and numerous other choices. No command line to use at all unless you really want to. I have had to use the command line in MS as well to fix such things as a corrupted registry and startup problems in MS Windows. You failed to mention this. Oh and no blue screen of death or computer lockups that I cannot get out of.
Uh…you can tell Ubuntu which programs you want to install and you do not have to double click. Third party programs such as google programs and adobe programs are easily installed into linux now by downloading them and clicking on them as you would in MS windows. No dependencies to track down. You also forgot to mention that MS also requires tracking down dependencies. Can we say .net framework and drivers, and DX6 through 10, etc.
By the way MS did not make the rules….how old are you..apparently not old enough to realize that mainframes are running the world as is *mix machines run the backbone of the net….okay I will give you that MS bullied itself into the home market..but this position will be losing ground as third world countries come on line and cannot afford MS products.
2) * Open standards need to become more the norm than the exceptions. Companies should make a special point to use open standards. For example, using OpenOffice rather than Microsoft Office will make your documents more open and more cross platform.
I agree and it is being done. Universities and elementary schools are starting to use more open source. So guess what …the next generation will have a head start on using such programs.
3) * Vendors need to flow more effort into supporting Linux. It’s a bit of the chicken and the egg problem, though. They will put more effort into it if Linux gets popular enough to warrant their time. On the other side, Linux isn’t really going to get that popular if these vendors don’t do it.
Uh…we have HP on board, AMD (which owns ATI video cards now), Google, Adobe (getting their feet wet), and various other large name vendors for both hardware and software. I think you sell Linux short as it is becoming quite popular in the European Union and various so called third world. I believe vendors are taking notice and realize that MS is not calling the shots.
Not everyone can afford to upgrade their computers to Vista and the hardware that comes with it. Even Dell took a hit when Vista came out and tried to force consumers to purchase Vista. Guess what Vista was buggy (still is) and Dell had to offer XP again and is also offering Ubuntu. The market speaks and MS was not controlling it this time – Hallelujah –
I still dual boot into XP as I like a certain genealogy program that I have used for years, but this may change as I play with a couple of programs called gramps and phpgedview, and TNG ( a pay for program that I run on my internet server).
It is interesting times we live in and my 4 and 9 year old are happily typing away on their Ubuntu machines not knowing or caring which OS is on it. A brave new world.
In some point, I agree, a years back i’m triying to move to linux but its very hard. but right now i’m falling in love with linux, spesialy ubuntu and using it about almost a year, great work guys.But i’m running ubuntu with a help from WUBI, thanks alot guys. The reasons why i’m using WUBI is:
1. I can not format my laptop, beacuse it came with OEM, its too pity to format it, that i will losing my OEM lic (I’ll sell it if some one want it
).
2. I need my outlook to do the email, because EVOLUTION doesn’t work yet with MSExchage 2007. but now i can use Outlook with Virtual Machine, so my laptop almost all time running Ubuntu.
The hard part (but not too hard as i though) using Ubuntu is:
1. I have to do the command line to get an option of monitor resolution, but it solved already, easy one.
2. I used to use Hyperterminal to console switch, etc. I’ve been looking for months to get the replacemen. It also solved, but i have to remember the numbers to configure, it’s ok
3. I still stuck wit MS office because i used to work with it for almost my whole life. But i still learning to get used to work with OpenOffice
my laptop run faster with ubuntu and faster compare to my friends PC with Vista that has 3x memory that i have in my Laptop, and have more speed of procesor (2 Ghz, with dual core). no need to upgrade HW to get vista look, it done by compiz,more beautifull, IMHO.
I love Linux. no need too reboot the machine after some instalation, no wories about virus,spyware.
Sory for my bad english, and sory if i have hurt somebody feeling
Windows is good..for public especially for teens like us..we need a good games which can easily run from it..thus most of us used to windows..but as server..window is suck and i choose linux is the best..again i say windows is good for public or developers as many 3rd party and others sees and set their invention based on windows standard and requirement but linux is the most powerful OS on earth…some people say linux is hackers heaven….lol
[...] Can Linux Replace Windows? This post got into the homepage of Digg and drove in a bunch of Linux fanboys who enjoyed calling me names. [...]
I use Windows XP, Vista, Suse Linux, whatever it does not matter to me really but that is mainly because they are all the damn same. You type keys and click your mouse and it performs. Sure there are differences as anything would be. As for windows cutting out the CLI? Not sure where you got you copy but CLI is still a part of windows and is very usable. Sure they have some nice GUI’s that make the process simpler that linux lacks most often but the CLI option is still available to those who know how to make use of it. Linux does need to become more like Windows in this area where things are click and go. Does that mean linux is following M$ mistakes? Not at all. It means they should learn from those mistakes so when they make their simple GUI’s they do not fail in the same areas. Windows however should become more like Linux and has been as time passes.
Now as for stability. I have Windows XP installed for 3 years now. Not a single crash. I have had one crash on my Suse server in the first 6 months. What gives here? Simple. I know Windows in and out as most server admins know linux. I can make Windows just as stable as a linux server. The only issues sits between the keyboard and chair.
To be fair, the misconception that the command line is always invoked in Linux is easy to see.
Though most major distros have a nice Gnome or KDE shell with lots of friendly Administrative tools on top, most of the help you solicit for a Linux problem will bypass all of the GUI stuff and go right into editing a script somewhere. Unfortunately, in many cases once you have done script tweak, the GUI won’t configure that ‘thing’ anymore. You’ll have to use the shell to configure it from then on.
If you go find some Linux software or other on the web, it usually has a .tar.gz file and a README. Usually there’s a package/application tool with a version available that was built and tested with the current kernel and environment, and you can grope/click in the GUI all you like to get at it, but as often someone will say ’sudo apt-get install xxxx’, or give RPM instructions or whatever.
Yeah, free Linux distros could be a lot easier, and even most of the GUI versions of tools could use some usability studies, and better help (which is usually non-existent).
All of that said, Linux is just fine for a ‘magic box’ that the typical, clueless end-user doesn’t tinker with. Something like the Asus Eee PC works great with Linux, and would be a useless brick with a Windows OS like Vista.
Linux does not need a command line…EVER…with latest distros. The only reason for the command line is for people like me who actually compile applications for various reasons that a normal user would not do…and in most cases would never be interested in doing.
Gaming is where Linux is left out. But if you are not a gamer…You are losing absolutely nothing by switching to something like Ubuntu.
It is more stable, uneffected by viruses, spyware, doesn’t need defragged every other day…
What are you waiting for?
I just bought a new computer, installed Linux Ubuntu and said goodbye to Windows.
My theme is “Close the windows and open the door to Linux”.