An article that’s been making the rounds is 7 Gadgets That Won’t Be Around in 2020. You can read that article if you wish, but this is the list of things predicted to be gone by that year:
- Standalone GPS Systems
- E-Readers
- Feature Phones
- Low-End Digital Cameras
- DVD Players
- Recordable CDs and DVDs
- Video Game Consoles
Here’s my opinion on each. Feel free to agree or disagree with a comment or two, but before commenting, realize that 2020 is 9 years (closer to 8, actually) away.
Standalone GPS will fall out of favor with the general masses because by 2020 as all smartphones should have in-built free-to-use GPS by that point.
E-Readers will be gone way before 2020 in favor of tablet devices.
For feature phones I give that a conditional yes. Yes, feature phones will be gone by 2020, but only in certain countries (such as this one, the US). Developing countries will still be using feature handsets like crazy simply because they’re cheaper to make and have batteries that last much, much longer.
Low-End digital cameras will not be gone by 2020. Everyone assumes that people will just throw out digital cameras for snapping pics with smartphones. Well, that’s not going to happen until they start putting better lenses in said phones, and that’s not going to happen because it would make the phone too thick – so the low-end digital camera stays.
DVD players will not be gone by 2020 because there has been no tangible medium introduced to replace it as of yet, and not everyone is hot on the idea of getting all your movies from an intangible source (the internet). Movies are a form of entertainment absolutely must have some means of saleable physical media mainly for the reason there are many who simply prefer them that way – much more than people realize. If they didn’t, you’d never see lines at Redboxes.
Recordable CDs and DVDs will only go away and stay if every new computer sold doesn’t come with an optical drive. Until that happens, the ancient optical disc format will be sticking around – even in 2020.
Video game consoles will still be around loudly and proudly in 2020, with the difference being they’ll be able to deliver television and movie entertainment. Microsoft is already working on this, and they’ll probably be the first to deliver it.
Which do you agree or disagree with?
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It is relatively rare when a technology is completely replaced. What happens more often is a technology will be used less compared to a new technology which ends up only partially replacing the old technology. Horse and buggy’s still exist as do people who watch movies on tape.
The replacement of standalone GPS systems will not happen. GPS is available where there are no cellular towers such as on the oceans and at 40,000 feet. It is used by ships and aircraft. For vehicles it will only be partially replaced by cellular based position systems because in 20 years it will still not be cost effective to place cellular towers in remote places because the low demand would never pay for the cell towers.
Also, since it is a system used by and developed for the military, the military would never shut it down in exchange for becoming dependent on a cellular provider. Owners of emergency vehicles would never consider giving up GPS in favor of a cellular based positioning system either.
Yes I know the prediction is about stand alone GPS units versus GPS integrated into phones, but these are the situations why standalone GPS is superior….because the complex navigations systems found on ships, aircraft and some vehicles that rely on GPS would never be reliable enough if the GPS signal were coming from a cell phone.
Afterall wouldn’t it be a joke if a 777 had a docking port for a Nokia cell phone so that the aircrafts navigation system works?
A moot point, all this. By 2020, I predict all electronics beneath military grade will be toast. WW3 will put paid to that. You can call me on it as long as this site is still up and running.