The last super computer I wrote about was ASCI White. Its large, immense, big, all-around vastness (synonyms care of Thesaurus.com) generated a great deal of awe regarding the direction of computing in these days. It has shown us how much power we currently possess, assuming we try hard enough. It has made evident to us the feats we can accomplish if we put our IBM servers to it. But there is one thing it cannot do…it cannot work outside of the basic bit structure. It is a contemporary computer, and as such it is limited to simplistic ones and zeroes.
Now, in an effort to merge the physics community with the more traditional engineering community, we present the first quantum computer. Forget ones and zeroes when you can have more than just two states. In quantum computing, a quantum bit, or qubit, can be either in an on, off, or neutral position. The neutral position is where the bit is in both positions simultaneously, a superposition, so to speak. The benefits of this are absolutely breathtaking. With the quantum system, computing becomes rather parallel. The nifty thing behind qubits is that they can represent the numbers simultaneously. As an example, a four bit system can represent the numbers zero through 15. A system of four qubits can represent the same set of numbers, but can do so all at the same time. The system represents all 16 possible combinations simultaneously. This greatly reduces the amount of time required on any problem being performed, most notably real number crunchers like cryptography and the like.
With every boon, there is always a bane, and that just really can not be avoided, at least not in this society. For example, when we win wars, we generally lose men. In this case, the sheer level of delicacy involved with dealing in quantum states of particles gives way to inherent problems. Sure, it’s a great computational tool, but subatomic particles in a quantum state aren’t particularly stable. Another notable problem is that by observing the system, you destroy the state it was in. Therefore, you can’t just jump in at the middle of an operation and verify the progress. This makes the situation look pretty dim, I agree, but there is platinum lining to my cloud: IBM has a working system. IBM’s researchers were able to successfully build a functional 5-qubit computer. Granted, its less of a computer than it is a research toy right now, but it works, and that’s the important thing. This will pave the way for such advancements as we haven’t seen since the invention of the solid-state transistor.
Moore’s law requires that we double our computing power every 18 months. ASCI White surpassed that law by cheating. They had lots of computers running in parallel, which kind of circumvented the rule. Ideally, we double our computing power by reducing the size required for the operations to take place. Current estimates hold that we will be unable to make transistors any smaller after the year 2020. This requires that we find another means to pursue our humanly goal of always getting more powerful. That route is quite obviously, in my mind, quantum computing.
Now, a number of other topics arise when I talk about quantum computing, my favorite of which is HAL. HAL tries to make a cameo in lots of my editorials. Here he is, again. HAL was an analog computer. By analog, we mean that it wasn’t limited to ones and zeroes. It just was not digital. By reaching into quantum computing we are getting to the point where computers will be able to make decisions on matters which are not explicitly correct or incorrect, right or wrong, on or off, one or zero. With quantum computing, and enough time and skills, we should in theory be able to give computers a gray area in which to make decisions, effectively allowing them a rudimentary artificial intelligence (though this rudimentary intelligence will be far better than even the best digital AI in existence). But, some people disagree with this theory, believing that even more would be required to compute like the human brain.
But, with all the advancements we have in this field, we must still be resolved to waiting, as, if things continue as they normally do, we probably will not get great results for at least 20 years. Perhaps we will get good results just in time to break that barrier in 2020, perhaps we will have to live with it for a while. In any case, we have plenty of time to research and wait, and guess and imagine. I am still set on getting a glowing HAL eye before I die, even if it kills me (no pun intended).
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