Has The PC Market Hit Its Saturation Point?

I personally base whether the PC market is saturated or not by asking a very simple question:

Is the computer as common in the average home as a television set?

That’s a tough one to answer. More on that later.

Saturation point in reference to PC sales is the instance where PC manufacturers cannot sell computers because everybody has one.

I would hazard to say the only reason anyone ever buys a new computer is for one or more of the following reasons:

Irreparable hardware failure on old PC.
A need for modern hardware for modern components (ex: Transition from ISA to PCI, IDE to SATA, AGP to PCIe, etc.)
Speed, so you could run the latest version of Windows.

..and not much else.

(Storage used to be a reason, but no longer since you can easily hook up additional drives via adding another hard drive internally or use external USB or FireWire on the cheap.)

The two things that the PC industry could rely on is that people needed newer hardware for newer devices and that Microsoft was sure to release an OS that would force people to upgrade.

However that scenario is changing.

Windows 7, as most are aware, does not need as powerful a PC as Vista does. The system requirements will be lower. And as long as I’ve been using Windows, that’s a first by Microsoft.

The only two major items I can see people needing a new computer for in the somewhat near future are USB 3.0 spec and solid state drive compatibility, both of which would require native motherboard support.

But you know there’s going to be a ton of people that will be just fine with USB 2.0 and the existing platter-based hard drives.

With these factors put together, the only thing left that would cause anyone to buy a new computer box is irreparable PC failure. But there’s nothing in a PC that cannot be replaced (not unless you drove over the box with a truck in a fit of rage).

This puts a very resounding statement in the minds of most computer users when checking out new PCs these days, that being, "I don’t need this."

And they’re correct.

Every time this happens, a PC maker loses a sale.

Sounds like market saturation to me, but I admit I could be flat wrong there.

The question was posed at the beginning of this article as to whether a computer is as common in the home as a television set.

Personally, I believe the answer to that is no.

I think the television set will be outright replaced by the computer.

But that’s also something else I could be flat wrong about.

What do you think?

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http://kkomp.com Sharron Field
As a computer builder – who wasn’t building a lot of computers for others in the first place; I’ve noticed the number of requests I’m getting for new machines has all but dried up during the latter half of last year and this year to date. Not advertising any longer might have something to do with it, as well as the recession and the market getting nearer to saturation point. (?)
That said; I believe that the takeup rate is less in the UK then in the USA. I would estimate that roughly 3 out of 5 homes in the UK has one or more computers. Out of the remainder I’d cynically estimate that 1 in 10 are either too brainless to be able to operate one, or still don’t appreciate the need to have a computer:
“Ooo no; I be too old to worry ’bout that. That be for smart people. Arr, I wouldn’t know how to turn it on…”
I reply “Have you ever tried?”
“No… I not tried ‘cos it be too complicated for me.” – And they change the subject.
The rest of the non-computer-owners; well they haven’t bothered because they think of a computer as a 16-colour child’s plaything, they simply can’t be bothered to discover more, or they’re waiting for some spectacular event or divine intervention to prompt them to go out and get one.
The conversion rate from non-computer-user to computer-user among these die-hard stick-in-the-muds is low, and therefore it appears to be mainly existing computer users without the skills or intuition to do their own repairs and upgrades who are the main customers.
-So yes; to a certain extent the UK computer market has begun to saturate.
“The only two major items I can see people needing a new computer for in the somewhat near future are USB 3.0 spec and solid state drive compatibility, both of which would require native motherboard support.”
That may be true in the case of SSDs to some extent possibly; although I’m fairly sure that a lot of modern mobos already have support for SSDs? Isn’t a lot of that support built into the OS as much as into the mobo?
Also will it not be possible to go out and buy a USB 3.0 PCI or PCIe x 1 card when 3.0 arrives; rather than investing in a new mobo?
Personally I have both a TV and a computer fitted with a TV card. I watch TV on the computer mainly.
I’s agree that TV will be as much on the computer as it will be on a dedicated TV set in the future.
http://www.tomkirkham.com Tom Kirkham
I think it is more product maturity than saturation. We used to always want and need more power from the PC. Now, most people can do just fine as long as it is a least a P4 with 2GB of RAM.
You are spot-on about the PC replacing the TV, although the device will actually be a TV with a PC in it. I know, mincing words, but it still must walk, talk, and act like a TV. A PC used as a TV is a PC first.

http://www.menga.net Rich Menga
To be honest I think the only thing that classifies a flat panel TV as a TV is the fact it doesn’t have a keyboard or network card and not much else..? Once the set-top box for the cable/satellite is integrated into the TV, there’s your processor and memory right there. PC as the TV and vice versa is a lot closer than we all think.

http://none David M
PC’s are different from other home appliances such as refrigerators, TV’s, stereos, toasters etc. PC’s are only useful until there is software out there that you wish or need to run, that your current PC cannot run. This is a much different time frame than say a refrigerator or a stereo which can be useful for 20 years. Its a rare exception when a PC has been useful for even half that time, ten years. In my experience with PC’s both at work and at home, they are only useful for roughly four to six years.
So really, with the higher turnover rate than say a home stereo, I don’t think PC’s ever really will reach a true saturation point where sales is a tiny percentage of the total potential market. PC sales with respect to other home appliance sales will always be higher.
As far as a PC replacing a TV. Sure, that could happen provided the user has a large high definition screen away from the computer. Its a matter of comfort. I know for myself, I will only watch a movie in bed or in my recliner and not while sitting at my desk.
I’m looking forward to the day when I can download a high definition movie for a couple bucks, store it to my computer hard drive (not a DVR) and then play the movie in high definition to my high definition television. The technology is certainly there now, some large company just has to make it happen.

http://www.menga.net Rich Menga
Keyword you used there is ‘appliance’. You can actually term a computer box as such instead of ‘that thing that sits in the home office but doesn’t do much’.
DVR/PVR is essentially a PC without the keyboard but it needs to graduate into something more accessible. Apple TV is the closest thing I’ve seen to the accessibility. Unfortunately it’s right idea, wrong execution.