Web-Based Applications – Buh-Bye Desktop?

Web-based applications are not exactly new. After all, we’ve had such things as web-based forums for a long time now. What is a lot more recent is the level of advancement that web-based applications have achieved. New technologies like AJAX, Flex and JSON have made it possible for developers to create web-based applications that look and function just like desktop programs you would install locally. Google is a leading innovator in web apps with the Google Docs and Gmail applications. Google Maps has expanded into entire interactive environments where people can see Street Views and fly around in Google Earth. Several other companies, some large and others smaller start-ups, have created very impressive web apps that rival the best desktop software out there.

What we’re looking at here is a move away from the traditional desktop program and to the internet as a platform. More and more, people can simply access the internet and perform practically all of their computing activities right through the web browser. In fact, I am writing this article right now in Google Docs. I cannot remember the last time I opened a Microsoft Office product.

In addition to this shift, we are also seeing web technologies come back to the desktop. New technologies like Google Gears, Adobe AIR and the upcoming release of Firefox 3 (which will have offline support for web-based apps) are going to further blur the line between the desktop and the Internet in 2008.

Before long, having an application tied to your local computer is going to seem quaint.

Decentralized, Speedy Communication

With the decentralization of communication also comes speed. The internet today is an enabler of speed of communication. Sometimes that communication can lead to harm, sometimes it can be very good, and most of the time a complete waste of time. However, it is happening and it is going to get even easier in 2008.

Today, we have the internet and our email as one method of communication. In many cases our cell phones are completely different and disconnected from email. Our land lines phone are yet another line in. Each of these lines of communication are distinct and separate in most cases. But, the line is blurring.

Instant Messaging is very popular and I would expect to see a little more cross-compatibility between the networks. Google has just integrated AOL Instant Messenger network access into their platform, for example. Twitter, while seen as a waste of time to many, is indicative of a trend toward decentralized communication with lots of speed. You can send your “tweets” via instant messenger, the web, even your cell phone. Google’s Grand Central service is going to hit public prime time at some point, allowing central management of usually separate phone lines over the Internet.

Twitter is one of those services that could be thrown aside as a gimmick, but it represents a very real trend and for that reason isn’t going anywhere. Expect to see once parallel lines of communication (phone, TV, Internet, etc) intersect and cross in multiple ways in 2008. We’re already seeing it now and that trend is just going to increase.

Apple Versus PC (or Perhaps Linux?)

It is common cause of speculation to wonder what is going to happen in the world of hardware and the operating system. Is Linux going to take over the world? Is Apple going to get more popular and eventually wreak embarrassment among the entire Windows community?

Chances are 2008 is not going to see anything of consequence. I expect Apple to release several more updates to OS X Leopard and finally cement Leopard in the eyes of Mac lovers everywhere as being stable and dependable as the almighty Tiger. I am hearing speculation that Apple might even release a new tablet computer which is sure to cause a lot of buzz. Also, the halo effect of the Ipod and Iphone are sure to draw in more users of Apple computers. Apple’s market share will continue to increase, but likely not in numbers which are going to change the world paradigm. Apple’s main rise in popularity is among consumers, whereas the corporate world makes up a very large percentage of the market. Corporate environments will continue to remain very skeptical of Apple systems.

Linux is very likely to be in the same exact state it is right now. Linux will see additional inroads into compact devices such as mobile phones (Android is Linux-based) and super-compact PCs. Linux on the desktop is likely going to remain fairly stagnant because the perception as a difficult OS for nerds is still alive and well. Ubuntu is helping Linux make inroads into the desktop, but those inroads are comparatively small.

Windows isn’t going anywhere for some time, and certainly not in 2008. Most notable for 2008 is that the world of Windows is probably going to change very little. Windows XP will remain the dominant Windows operating system. Windows Vista will continue to struggle against the initial perception of being big, beefy and crash prone. I do expect further updates to Windows Vista to eventually make the OS every bit as stable as Windows XP, but I think that it will take a little time for users to mentally make that shift. Vista damaged Microsoft’s reputation and while that does mean Microsoft is damaged as a company, it does mean that the world of Windows is not likely to move into Vista lock, stock and barrel.

The Move to Mobile

2008 is going to see even more shift away from the traditional desktop computer and toward the notebook computer. Most sales figures already show the notebook vs. desktop lineup either at neck and neck or the notebook outpacing the desktop in terms of sales. Leading manufacturers are reporting that notebook sales are higher than their desktop counterparts. So, the move is definitely toward smaller and more mobile devices.

Even the desktops are getting more compact. Desktop machines are smaller and more stylish than the old beige box of yesteryear. So, even those users who can’t put up with the tiny form factor of a notebook PC are going to find themselves on smaller, more compact desktop machines.

What this all means is that we are seeing an increasing trend away from hobbyist PC assembly and the big beige box and toward the view of the computer being a device. If the device breaks, you replace it. And efforts like the XO laptop are making the prospect of small, compact and super cheap computers even more real. While the XO may or may not achieve it’s initial aims, it, like the Iphone, is a revolutionary device if only for the effect it can have on the general industry. Expect computers to get cheaper and, yes, more like a device and less like a large investment.