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View Full Version : 3 New Tech Breakthroughs on Horizon?


hunter64
02-02-2004, 11:13 AM
Hello, I am new to this forum!

I have found the need to upgrade to a new pc. I am currently running a Pent 3 at 334MHZ, w/768 MG mem.

However I was sent an email, stating new breakthroughs are coming and hold off on any new pruchases is you can...Should I wait or just go for it??

Below is the email,


>>
Buying a Computer? Don't Waste Your Money!

On the one hand, there's never been a better time to purchase computer hardware: Your technology dollars go farther than ever before.

However, those of us who plan to purchase new hardware this year face some unique challenges. The industry is in a state of flux, and we are on the verge of some new breakthroughs that are likely to make a number of products obsolete sooner than expected. In 2004, you'll probably want to alter your buying strategy, especially if you're in the market for a desktop computer.


This product segment is a major danger zone for current buyers.

Product cycles are getting shorter, and computers become obsolete faster. But the situation is particularly acute this year because new technologies will shorten the lifespan of today's desktops.

My guess is that you will want to replace a computer you buy today within two years or less. Therefore, unless you really need certain features, you are probably better off buying a cheap machine now and holding off the purchase of the deluxe machine until the next replacement cycle.

Three New Technology Breakthroughs on Horizon

There are three new technologies that will be making their way into your computer over the next few years that will drive the next upgrade cycle: 64-bit computing, PCI Express, and the successor to the Windows XP operating system, code named Longhorn.

64-Bit PC Computing

Over the next year or two, both desktop and laptop PCs will slowly migrate from a 32-bit environment to 64 bit. This change will yield a major speed boost, particularly on processor-intensive tasks such as graphics, complex math, and data encryption. AMD is already shipping 64-bit processors for desktops and laptops that are capable of running both 32- and 64-bit applications. Intel will probably follow suit with similar chips later this year.

For these chips to really shine, however, they require both an operating system and applications optimized for 64-bit chips. Unfortunately, Microsoft has not started selling such software yet. Microsoft offers Windows XP 64-Bit Edition, which supports the Intel Itanium chip, and Windows XP 64-Bit Edition Version 2003, which supports Intel Itanium 2 chip, but these operating systems are not designed for typical desktop PCs.

The version of Windows XP designed for desktop PCs that will support the AMD 64-bit chip goes by the catchy name of Windows XP 64-Bit Edition for 64-Bit Extended Systems. It is in beta testing and won't be ready for prime time until at least late this year.

PCI Express

The PCI bus, which connects things like your graphics, sound, and network card within your system, hasn't changed much since 1992. AGP slots have speeded up graphics to some extent, but the current input/output system has reached its limit, creating a performance bottleneck. PCI Express, the third generation of I/O interconnect (3GIO in geek terms), which will begin appearing later this year, should change all that.

As newer computers with the new I/O appear, they will enable faster graphics, improved streaming video, and faster network connections. PCI Express will also be available to external devices, offering an alternative to USB 2.0 and FireWire connections. In laptops, PCI ExpressCards will replace PCMCIA slots, allowing laptop users access to a number of fast, interchangeable devices. If you are interested in learning more about PCI Express, click here for a link to a short Intel video clip on the subject

"Longhorn"

The next generation Windows operating system, code named Longhorn, will probably not debut until late 2005 at the earliest, but it is not too early to start thinking about it.

Longhorn is still a work in progress, but it's safe to say that it will sport a different, more graphical interface and a new file system that promises to be a major improvement over the current one. Changes in the architecture of the operating system should, in theory, yield a much more secure computing environment.


In Summary

For years, computer buyers have had to weigh the benefits of purchasing a more expensive replacement computer against the risks of obsolescence, but right now the risks look particularly daunting. PC Express will offer clear benefits in areas that are important to many advisors, and 64-bit computing, which will probably take a little longer to go mainstream, will offer significant additional benefits.

If you do not have a pressing need for a new desktop computer right now, I'd certainly wait a while before buying a new one; for more pressing needs, buy if you must, think of the replacement as a temporary solution, and spend accordingly.

Thank,
Hunter

raftero
02-02-2004, 12:50 PM
if you are looking at high end gameing or video editing maybe you should waite,the advances will be high dollar more than likely and will only come down when new advances appear,so i would say buy now if you can get a significant improvement over your present computer.

hunter64
02-02-2004, 02:29 PM
I will be doing some editing of video, but only the old tapes of family gatherings and such. Some gaming, but in all, I would rate the usage of both as med. vs. high end.

Thanks,
hunter

LawyerRon
02-02-2004, 02:33 PM
Build your PC now. Don't wait.

mairving
02-02-2004, 02:49 PM
That is terrible advice. For one, why would you wait til late 2005 for Longhorn to come out even if it does come out then. The other 'new technologies' would be nice to have but when they come out who could afford them. Cutting Edge is an expensive place to hang out.

yellohut
02-02-2004, 02:53 PM
if you keep waiting you will never build..
there is always "some new breakthrough" right around the corner.

unless you know you want a specific part, and you konw the release date.. then you're better off building with what's available now.

Blakhart
02-02-2004, 05:53 PM
Maybe the way longhorn caches the file sys you will need gigs of ram. Think my xp2500/nf2 and p4 3.4/865pe, both on M$ XP will be good for a while.

jimmyrules712
02-03-2004, 12:19 AM
if you wait a year or two for these advances to come into play, there will be a whole new set of advances in the enxt year or two. Also, those 3 new techs might come into the market in a year or two, but itll be at least another year or two before they are extremely affordable. Heck the cpu i just bought for my bros PC came out like 2 years ago, and i just bought it, and itll be good for at least 2 years b4 he needs an upgrade.

Vlad16
02-03-2004, 12:40 AM
If you're going to buy an Intel system, the "wait a little while" advice may be worth it. The Prescotts are going to be released soon with a P4-E classification compared to the P4-C of the current Northwoods. Benchmarks are showing that comparable Northwoods will outperform the Prescotts until the Prescotts are released at higher speeds.

Intel will slash prices on the Northwoods when the Prescott is released so I'd wait until that happens if you're going with an Intel system.

http://www.anandtech.com/cpu/showdoc.html?i=1956

Cricket
02-03-2004, 12:45 AM
If you need a new computer now, go ahead and build it now. Anything current will be worlds faster than a Pentium 333MHz. It doesn't make sense to put up with a 333MHz computer until these new technologies mature enough for stable usage...go ahead and build a new one now.

:) Cricket

GaryRouth
02-03-2004, 04:25 AM
Just to give you a US dollars idea of the why-wait situation: if you have a nice monitor, keyboard, and mouse that you want to re-use with your new computer, you could build a nice up-to-date computer in the $400-$700 price range. WinXP Pro upgrade for students is only $81 at NewEgg. Longhorn might not arrive until 2006, if MS pushes the release back any further (which it has done many times before).

Are you sure that's a PIII at 333? My chart only shows them starting at 450 . . . [but it doesn't matter much anyway, the Katmai PIIIs were very similiar to the PIIs just before them]

The warning about technologies just around the corner actually applies to folks who want to upgrade certain parts on a short cycle (for example, replace video cards evey two years, or cpus = for these, the supporting connections are constantly evolving & often the entire motherboard has to be upgraded. Not a great problem, really, motherboards don't cost that much, and provide the best answer in most of those cases anyway).
. . . Gary

hunter64
02-03-2004, 06:01 AM
Thank you all for the advice! I am going to build my PC now, and not wait!!

Thanks!
Hunter

Mac Medic
02-03-2004, 06:50 AM
64bit, PCI express, an advanced OS years ahead of the competition, wow, that e-mail is describing the current Mac platform, oh yeah, buy one now, why wait till 2006 to reap the benifits ;)