I’m going to answer this one right up front: Slightly over 90 million file writes. This guy proved it so. And even though that only answered the question of how long a USB stick lasts in a controlled test environment, we do know that when a USB stick fails, the worst that can happen is that no more data can be written to it, but amazingly can still be accessed, as in read.
Flash drives may very well be the most rugged means of storing data next to half-inch magnetic tape.
We know how many file writes a USB stick can handle, but what about usage type and natural longevity?
Usage Type
Boiled down to a simple question: What will kill a USB flash stick faster than anything else?
Answer: Using it to hold an operating system that is used routinely.
Let’s say you decide to use a USB stick as a primary "drive" for Linux. You’ll notice that stick will get literally hot in a short period of time doing something as simple as web browsing after the OS is loaded. That stick will be in almost-constant use from the moment you start the PC.
I can’t think of anything else that would kill a USB stick quicker.
If you used a USB stick as the storage medium for the OS, my best guess is that the stick would be killed in roughly 2 years – assuming you used it daily.
Natural Longevity
Boiled down to a simple question: When will the physical components of a USB stick begin to naturally erode?
Answer: Around 8 to 10 years.
If you ever wanted a real-life example of how long flash-based media can last, look no further than a Nintendo Entertainment System. Yes, the same one people played Super Mario Bros. on. The cartridges the system used back in 1985 still work today. Many have reported that NES carts will in fact work perfectly if the contacts are cleaned lightly with rubbing alcohol.
Considering you can make a 25-year-old cartridge still work today, that’s nothing short of incredible.
USB sticks don’t have any chance whatsoever of lasting as long as an NES cart for one reason – heat. At its hottest, an NES cart only gets lukewarm. USB sticks do in fact get hot, and that heat breaks down the physical components of it more quickly.
Things you can do that will make your USB stick stand the test of time
1. Not using the plug on the stick at all.
If you add a USB extension cable and use that to plug/unplug the stick from your PC, you eliminate wear on the stick’s plug itself.
Over time, that plug if used too much will fall apart.
2. Capping the stick when not in use.
The cap on the end of a USB stick may not seem like much, but it does shield it from the elements. If you’re asking, "What elements? It’s in my house!", the answer is dust particles. Have you ever seen a USB stick where the plug is tarnished? That happened because it wasn’t capped like it should have been.
Think of capping your stick(s) as roughly the same as putting a CD in a sleeve when not in use.
3. Keeping it out of the sun.
Your PC is most likely next to a window in your house or apartment and you probably toss USB sticks on your desk without a second thought. If the stick is exposed to the sun it can warp the casing over time. This won’t necessarily harm the data portion of it, but one day you’ll plug in the stick and the casing will fall right off. And believe me when I say you do not want to handle a USB stick that had its casing fall off, as it can slice your fingers all too easily.
The solution to this is easy. When not in use, cap the stick and chuck it in a desk drawer.
Should you consider Flash based media dependable?
Yes. It’s better than optical media simply for the reason you can write to it, store it in a closet for a decade, and upon retrieval will still work just as good as the day you wrote to it.
Optical media for long term storage is not recommended due to the fact they’re manufactured so cheaply these days.
If you’ve ever thought to yourself, "Wow, writeable CDs and DVDs sure used to be more reliable years ago..", you’re absolutely correct. They were manufactured better. These days when you purchase a stack of discs, look at the side of the stack. Notice all the imperfections. They literally look lumpy on the edges. Then look at a stack of old discs if you have them. No lumps. They were machined better.
If you can afford it, go with USB sticks. Buy as many as you need to. Write, label with a label maker and store. Years from now you’ll be glad you did.
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