There are some rather large changes on the horizon that are coming with desktop computers. You may be wondering when you should buy your next computer, because the last thing you want to do is buy a box only to have it be obsolete faster than usual.
The following information below is very easy to follow. It comprises of four things, one of which you may already have. When all four are widely available for at least six months, that’s the time to buy.
1. Windows 7 Service Pack 1
You may have Windows 7 already. A beta of Windows 7 SP1 will be available in June. Should you get it? No, because the OS runs fine without it. However when officially released and you see it in your Auto-Updater, get it.
There are three things with SP1 that matter. The first is enhanced Bluetooth support. The second is enhanced wi-fi stacks. The third is the biggie – USB 3.0 support.
USB 3.0 is going to be a very big deal. It’s much faster than 2.0, and the data storage you’ll see available for little USB sticks will be nothing short of monstrous in size. It is absolutely and totally worth it to get it.
2. USB 3.0
Well, you knew this was going to be #2 from what you read above. Wide availability of this technology should be available in late 2010/early 2011.
If buying a PC, specifically look for one that has USB 3.0 compliant ports – particularly if you plan on buying a laptop.
If building a PC, you’ll be able to purchase a USB 3.0 complaint card. You also may want to entertain the idea of buying a new PC case with USB 3.0 ports in the front or top. If you don’t, you’ll be stuck with the USB 2.0 ports you have now. If you have a PC case you don’t want to part with, plan on buying a USB 3.0 hub along with the card.
3. 4K sector hard drives
This hardware is probably going to be last to the party, as it’s been stated wide availability will not be available until early 2011.
4. BDXL optical drives
This is what’s finally going to replace DVD as the standard optical drive. It is a new Blu-ray format that will allow you to use data discs that can store 100 to 125GB a piece. And no, I’m not kidding. Watch for this standard to appear around the same time 4K sector HDDs are in wide availability.
Recommendation and Prediction
Recommendation: Upgrade to Windows 7 now
If you’re a Windows user, it’s time to ditch XP and go with 7. It will run fine as long as you have a 2-core processor with 2GB RAM. Remember, 7 is not Vista. It runs much, much better.
You should upgrade now so you can get used to the way 7 works. Then when the time comes when all the stuff above is standardized and in wide availability, you’ll be a step ahead because you’ll already be using an OS you’re familiar with that supports it all.
Using XP with the above upcoming hardware is a bad idea, particularly with 4K sector HDDs. Special software will be needed just to use them in XP and they will in fact run slower on that OS. Sure, you’ll get a bigger hard drive but the access times will be slower because of the software-based workaround. You want to use an OS that is "4K-aware" natively. Windows Vista and 7 are, but 7 is obviously the better choice.
Prediction: Spring 2011 will probably be the best time to buy
This Christmas you’ll be guaranteed to see a whole crop of new PC hardware, including the 4K HDDs and USB 3.0. Maybe BDXL optical drives will even be in there if it can get standardized fast enough, but I doubt it.
In Winter 2010, all this stuff is going to be wickedly expensive and I strongly recommend that you do not buy at that time.
Spring 2011 is when everything should be at reasonable price points for all of the hardware mentioned above. Yes, it’s a while to wait, but the point is that on purchase you’ll be buying into hardware that will stick around for a good long time.
Does this mean a lot of tech is going to go obsolete in the next 8 months?
Yes, and more so than usual. The old 512 byte standard HDD is going bye-bye. USB 3.0 is going to be heavily promoted and will be sure to overtake 2.0 quickly. Blu-ray is bound and determined to kill the DVD format, and with BDXL they’ll most likely succeed.
Windows XP Professional Edition’s extended support ends on April 8, 2014 – but I wouldn’t dare use that OS after this year with upcoming newer hardware because so much stuff is simply not going to work correctly with it. Sure, you’ll probably be able to get most things working somewhat with software workarounds by the manufacturers of the hardware, but the point is that native support for said hardware simply won’t exist.
The transition period from old to new will start Winter 2010. By Spring 2011, that will be the time to buy.
Now that you’re aware of all this, you have plenty of time to plan. 
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Flash0727
1042 days ago
Hey Rich Menga, Just saw this article on knowing when to buy. Unfortunately, as I sit here, I await UPS with my new laptop. Can’t use the old one much as it is 6 years old and I don’t think worth it to upgrade, however, I will be working with it after the new one gets here. First time I ever bought anything other than a Toshiba Notebook. Got a Gateway, (Gulp), haven’t really heard too many bad things but this laptop has a 17.3″ screen which is good for an old geeser like me that can’t see as good as I used to. It has, unfortunately, 4 USB2.0 ports, which is one of the reasons I wanted it. Toshiba can’t seem to get over 3 ports on any of the budget machines. It has an HDMI port which I wanted for convenience sake and it has 4 gig of memory. It will come with Windows 7 on it, so I can get rolling on learning, dabbling, etc
I am going to go through some steps upon opening the box this time that I should have done over the last purchases, by keeping a running “Diary” as to what specific things I do as I get into it. Especially watching how programs load and so forth. It’s somewhat of a pain, but hey, I have a little free time on my hands, etc. I started with a Vic 20, then a Commodore 64, then another Commordore 64 then a Compac “luggable” (Samsonite in disguise) (it weighed in at about 32 pounds and I carried it on the road for years) Talk about working out my arm & back muscles. Think that’s why my back bothers me all the time. Some time near the end of the 1980′s I got my first “small” Toshiba notebook and I have had 8 of them since. Using my own desktop that I built right now, and it works like I want it too. No kids anymore. Grandkids not allowed in my computer room when they are here, so I don’t even have the sides on the case and have 4 external 1TB Gigs hanging off it. Just got a 2 Hard Disk Docking Port that holds SATA and IDE. (another story which I will write about it someone is interested)
Anyhow, good article, thanks. Just complete them a couple of days earlier next time (:-]
Having fun and being retired sure beats the Legal and Insurance professions I was involved with on my Day Job.
Take Care
Flash0727
Rich Menga
1041 days ago
Don’t worry, laptops are usually last in line for any new computer technology (always starts out big then goes small as you know), and six years is long enough of a wait.
For USB 3.0 on a laptop you would have had to wait an additional year, possibly longer. Toshiba makes a fine unit anyway and you should be very happy with it.
I’m in the same boat, my current laptop only has 3 USB 2.0 ports on it as well. My last laptop, a Dell Inspiron 6000, had 4 and I liked that.
Getting familiarized with Windows 7 now will help you greatly for future purchases. And even if you decide to keep the Toshiba for only 18 months, resale value is higher on laptops so you’ll get more bang for the buck when it comes time to sell, should you decide to do so. Keep all boxes/bag/etc. that come with it so you can make a profitable sell in the future.
John Yarcusko
1027 days ago
All of this is very worthwhile information. thanks!!!!!!!
Elmer Blythe
1017 days ago
Hey Rich Menga:
It appears that I’ve joined PCMech at the right time. I have been thinking for a short while about building my own computer and thus appreciate your comments about when it would be time to dump the old XP machine and its USB2 ports, etc. Now I’ll have to get a bit more serious about the building project. I assume that PCMech has articles, stories, blogs, etc. about building your own PC. If you can direct me to those, it would be greatly appreciated. In the meantime I’ll look for myself.
My thanks for the scoop on the new optical drives (I hadn’t heard about them) and the USB3 ports.
Elmer Blythe